United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2004

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United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2004

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →

  John F. Kerry.jpg George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 1,911,430 1,670,003
Percentage 52.92% 46.24%

New Jersey Presidential Election Results by County, 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New Jersey was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 6.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a state Kerry would win, or a blue state. Although due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and the resignation amidst scandal of Governor James McGreevey, the state was considered an interesting race. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state. In the end, however, Kerry took New Jersey by a comfortable margin. To date this is the last time the Democratic margin of victory was less than 10%. As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which the Republican candidate won Somerset County.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
  6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won most of the pre-election polls taken in this state, but mostly by small margins. The final 3 polling average showed the Democratic leading 49% to 42%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,934,011.[3] Kerry raised $6,513,274.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. However, Bush made inroads in Bergen County, where many wealthy residents reside, and in other South Jersey counties. Bush controlled largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris are also among the ten wealthiest counties in America) and Salem County. Monmouth County's wealthy population and Ocean and Cape May Counties' older population also contributed to Bush's relative success in this largely Democratic state.

Results

United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2004[7][8]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 1,911,430 52.92% 15
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) 1,670,003 46.24% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 19,418 0.54% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 4,514 0.12% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 2,750 0.08% 0
Green David Cobb 1,807 0.05% 0
Socialist Walt Brown 664 0.02% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 575 0.02% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 530 0.01% 0
Totals 3,611,691 100.00% 15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 56%/72%

Results breakdown

By county

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Kerry
-Red municipalities won by Bush
County Kerry % Kerry # Bush % Bush # Others % Others #
Atlantic 52.5% 55,746 46.6% 49,487 0.9% 864
Bergen 51.9% 207,666 47.4% 189,833 0.7% 2,745
Burlington 53.1% 110,411 46.1% 95,936 0.8% 1,609
Camden 62.4% 137,765 36.9% 81,427 0.7% 1,741
Cape May 42.3% 21,475 56.8% 28,832 0.9% 455
Cumberland 52.4% 27,875 45.8% 24,362 1.8% 948
Essex 70.4% 203,681 28.8% 83,374 0.8% 2,293
Gloucester 52.2% 66,835 46.9% 60,033 0.9% 1,096
Hudson 67.3% 127,447 32.0% 60,646 0.7% 1,353
Hunterdon 39.1% 26,050 59.8% 39,888 1.1% 742
Mercer 61.3% 91,580 37.9% 56,604 0.8% 1,326
Middlesex 56.3% 166,628 42.8% 126,492 0.9% 2,685
Monmouth 44.6% 133,773 54.6% 163,650 0.8% 2,516
Morris 41.7% 98,066 57.5% 135,241 0.8% 1,847
Ocean 39.0% 99,839 60.2% 154,204 0.8% 2,263
Passaic 55.4% 94,962 43.9% 75,200 0.7% 1,149
Salem 46.2% 13,749 52.8% 15,721 1.0% 311
Somerset 47.4% 66,476 51.7% 72,508 0.9% 1,295
Sussex 34.6% 23,990 64.1% 44,506 1.3% 900
Union 58.7% 119,372 40.6% 82,517 0.7% 1,498
Warren 37.4% 18,044 61.3% 29,542 1.3% 622

By congressional district

Kerry won 7 of 13 congressional districts.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 39% 61% Rob Andrews
2nd 50% 49% Frank LoBiondo
3rd 51% 49% H. James Saxton
4th 56% 44% Chris Smith
5th 57% 43% Scott Garrett
6th 43% 57% Frank Pallone, Jr.
7th 53% 47% Mike Ferguson
8th 41% 59% Bill Pascrell
9th 41% 59% Steve Rothman
10th 18% 82% Donald Payne
11th 58% 42% Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th 46% 54% Rush D. Holt, Jr.
13th 31% 69% Bob Menendez

Electors

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.[10]

  1. Warren Wallace
  2. Wilfredo Caraballo
  3. Tom Canzanella
  4. Carolyn Walch
  5. Peggy Anastos
  6. Bernard Kenny
  7. Ronald Rice
  8. Abed Awad
  9. Jack McGreevey - (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
  10. Wendy Benchle
  11. Loni Kaplan
  12. Carolyn Wade
  13. Riletta L. Cream
  14. Bernadette McPherson
  15. Upendra Chivukula

References

  1. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[permanent dead link]
  2. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=34
  3. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html
  6. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004".
  8. ^ "Official General Election Candidates List" (PDF).
  9. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  10. ^ https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/ascertainment_new_jersey_01.html

External links

  • Official Results (New Jersey Division of Elections)
  • Official Results by municipality
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