United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018

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United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018

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  Bob Casey Jr. official photo.jpg Lou Barletta (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. Lou Barletta
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,745,018 2,109,023
Percentage 55.6% 42.7%

Pennsylvania Senate Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County Results

Casey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Barletta:      50-60%      60-70%      70–80%

U.S. Senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on May 15.[1]

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term.[2] Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta,[3] Green Party nominee Neal Gale,[4] and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns.[5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

On ballot

Results

Democratic primary[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. 752,008 100%
Total votes 752,008 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Christiana
State Senators
  • Jake Corman, State Senator, Pennsylvania State Senate Majority Leader[23]
State Representatives
Newspapers
Cynthia E. Ayers (withdrew)
Individuals
  • Ambassador Henry Cooper, Former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative under President Reagan.[28]
  • Major General Robert B. Newman Jr., Former Adjutant General of Virginia (USAF).[28]
  • Brigadier General Ken Chrosniak, Former instructor at the U.S. Army War College.[28]
  • Dr. Peter Pry, Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory board to Congress on policies to counter Weapons of Mass Destruction.[28]
  • Dr. Brian Hay, Business Executive and National Security Expert.[29]
Bobby Lawrence (withdrew)
Individuals
  • Jeremy Hanson, host of Unleashed The Jeremy Hanson Show[30]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Lou
Barletta
Jim
Christiana
Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana) April 2018 >400 32% 11% 58%
Bellwether Research (R-Addis) September 20–24, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 22% <10% 60%

Results

Results by county:
  Barletta—>90%
  Barletta—80–90%
  Barletta—70–80%
  Barletta—60–70%
  Barletta—50–60%
  Christiana—50–60%
  Christiana—60–70%
  Christiana—70–80%
Republican primary[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lou Barletta 433,312 63.3%
Republican Jim Christiana 254,118 36.7%
Total votes 687,430 100.0

Libertarian Party

Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018.[32]

Candidates

Nominee

Green Party

Candidates

Nominee

  • Neal Gale, Clean Energy Consultant [34]

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[36] Safe D October 26, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Safe D October 11, 2018
Daily Kos[38] Safe D October 26, 2018
Fox News[39][a] Likely D October 30, 2018
CNN[40] Likely D October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[41] Likely D October 30, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Lou Barletta (R)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
  • Eric Trump, businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[48]
  • Lara Trump, television host and daughter-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump[49]
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Federal officials
  • Barack Obama, former President of the United States[60]
  • Joe Biden, former Vice President of the United States and former U.S. Senator (D-DE)[61]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local and statewide officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Neal Gale (G)
Organizations
Dale Kerns (L)
Governors
  • Gary Johnson, former New Mexico Governor, 2012 and 2016 presidential candidate, and 2018 New Mexico Libertarian Senate candidate[83]
  • Bill Weld, former Massachusetts Governor and 2016 vice presidential candidate[84]
State and local politicians
  • Jennifer Moore, Upper Providence Township Auditor[85] (Libertarian)
  • Brandon Magoon, Majority Inspector of Elections Erie 6-1[86] (Republican)
  • Bruno Novak, Judge of Elections, Hempfield-3[87] (Libertarian)
  • Michael Oehling Jr, Buffalo Township Republican Committeeman and Auditor[85]
Individuals
  • Bobby Lawrence, former Republican U.S. Senate candidate and small business owner[85]
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
Lou
Barletta (R)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,833 51% 44% 3%[88]
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 56% 39% 1% 4%
Muhlenberg College October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 54% 40%
Franklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 50% 35% 14%
537 RV ± 6.0% 50% 31% 4%[89] 14%
Morning Consult October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 47% 32% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018 204 LV 50% 33% 15%
545 RV ± 6.1% 48% 30% 4%[90] 20%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 53% 37% 3% 7%
Muhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 53% 35% 7%[91] 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 38% 2% 8%
Franklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018 222 LV 47% 34% 1% 19%
511 RV ± 6.1% 48% 29% 3%[92] 20%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 53% 38% 1% 8%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 47% 45% 2% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 990 ± 4.5% 55% 41% 5%
Suffolk University June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 32% 1% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 44% 27% 1% 28%
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 48% 32% 8% 18%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 423 ± 6.8% 43% 25% 2% 30%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,056 ± 3.0% 54% 36% 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 2,165 ± 3.8% 52% 43% 5%

Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 2,729,775 55.6% +1.9
Republican Lou Barletta 2,100,302 42.8% -1.8
Libertarian Dale Kerns 50,153 1.0% -0.7
Green Neal Gale 30,572 0.6% +0.6
Total votes

See also

References

  1. ^ http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2018-state-primary-election-dates.aspx
  2. ^ Garcia, Eric; Garcia, Eric (4 May 2017). "Trump Encouraging Barletta to Challenge Casey in Senate". Roll Call.
  3. ^ "2018 Pennsylvania Election Results". Retrieved May 16, 2018.
  4. ^ "Candidates 2018". Green Party of Pennsylvania. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  5. ^ a b c d Rose, Alex (March 7, 2018). "Kerns wins Libertarian nod for U.S. Senate race". Delaware County Daily Times. Retrieved May 25, 2018.
  6. ^ "Casey in Good Position For 2018 Reelection Bid - WNPV Radio 98.5FM & 1440AM". 16 October 2017.
  7. ^ Our Campaigns. "Pennsylvania Elections-Summary Results". Retrieved May 16, 2018.
  8. ^ "Barletta Announces His Candidacy for Senate". Roll Call August 29, 2017. Retrieved August 29, 2017.
  9. ^ Engelkemier, Paul (8 April 2017). "Christiana Jumps into U.S. Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved 8 April 2017.
  10. ^ Davies, Dave (November 28, 2016). "Pa. businessman exploring a run for governor". NewsWorks. Archived from the original on January 13, 2017. Retrieved January 11, 2017.
  11. ^ Levy, Marc (June 7, 2017). "Ex-Energy Exec Enters Pennsylvania's US Senate Race". WESA. Retrieved June 7, 2017.
  12. ^ a b c d e f g "Pennsylvania 2018 General Election". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2018-03-26.
  13. ^ "Cynthia E. Ayers Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate". Gant Daily. June 21, 2017. Retrieved July 12, 2017.
  14. ^ Tamari, Jonathan (February 10, 2017). "Republicans' next Pennsylvania target: Casey". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  15. ^ Howley, Patrick (May 23, 2017). "EXCLUSIVE: Trumper Bobby Lawrence Announces Senate Run In Pennsylvania". Big League Politics. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  16. ^ "Second Republican joins race to unseat Bob Casey". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Associated Press. March 1, 2017. Retrieved March 2, 2017.
  17. ^ O'Boyle, Bill (September 20, 2017). "Shektor drops Senate bid; will run for House seat". Times Leader. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
  18. ^ Engelkemier, Paul (27 February 2017). "Saccone Launches 2018 US Senate Bid". PoliticsPA. Retrieved 27 February 2017.
  19. ^ Engelkeimer, Paul (24 April 2017). "Bartos Jumps into Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved 24 April 2017.
  20. ^ Potter, Chris (August 1, 2017). "Rep. Mike Kelly pulls out of crowded Senate race for Casey seat". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved August 1, 2017.
  21. ^ Press, The Associated. "Meehan won't challenge Casey for Senate in 2018, spokesman says".
  22. ^ Engelkemier, Paul (May 12, 2017). "Reed Rules Out Governor and Senate Runs in 2018". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 15, 2017.
  23. ^ "Politics PA".
  24. ^ "Jim Christiana's Facebook page".
  25. ^ "David L. Reed official website".
  26. ^ "Rep. Kerry Benninghoff Endorses Jim Christiana for U.S. Senate" (PDF).
  27. ^ "Our View: Christiana is better choice". The Beaver County Times. May 9, 2018.
  28. ^ a b c d "Cynthia E. Ayers Endorsements". Cynthia E. Ayers. Retrieved 2017-09-02.
  29. ^ "Cynthia E. Ayers Endorsements". Cynthia E. Ayers. Retrieved 2017-09-10.
  30. ^ "Lawrence Endorsements". Bobby Lawrence. Retrieved 2017-07-15.
  31. ^ "Our Campaigns". Retrieved May 16, 2018.
  32. ^ Rose, Alex. "Kerns wins Libertarian nod for U.S. Senate race". Daily Times News. Daily Times News. Retrieved 2018-03-07.
  33. ^ "Libertarian Jumps into Senate Race". Retrieved 2017-03-17.
  34. ^ "Candidates 2018". Green Party of Pennsylvania. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  35. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  36. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  37. ^ "2018 Senate". Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  38. ^ "Elections 2017-18". Daily Kos. September 30, 2018.
  39. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  40. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  41. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  42. ^ "Rep. Lou Barletta, a Great Republican from Pennsylvania who was one of my very earliest supporters, will make a FANTASTIC Senator. He is strong & smart, loves Pennsylvania & loves our Country! Voted for Tax Cuts, unlike Bob Casey, who listened to Tax Hikers Pelosi and Schumer!". Twitter. February 11, 2018. Retrieved February 11, 2018.
  43. ^ Mike Pence. "Great to be in Pennsylvania today supporting my friend @LouForSenate. Lou Barletta will put the interests of the hardworking men & women of PA first and will be an advocate for @RealDonaldTrump's pro-growth economic agenda!". Twitter.
  44. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab "Barletta Rolls Out Endorsements for Senate Bid". PoliticsPA. October 19, 2017.
  45. ^ "Toomey endorses Barletta for Senate seat". The Sentinel. January 16, 2018. Retrieved January 16, 2018.
  46. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Tamari, Jonathan. "Inbox: PA's entire Republican House delegation endorses @RepLouBarletta for Senate". Twitter.
  47. ^ "Proud to endorse @loubarletta for US Senate". Twitter.
  48. ^ Eric Trump. "Lara and I loved spending the day in Pennsylvania campaigning for @RepLouBarletta for Senate! He is an incredible guy & a great friend - we desperately need him fighting alongside @realDonaldTrump in #WashingtonDC! #VoteForLou #MAGA #PA". Twitter.
  49. ^ Eric Trump. "Lara and I loved spending the day in Pennsylvania campaigning for @RepLouBarletta for Senate! He is an incredible guy & a great friend - we desperately need him fighting alongside @realDonaldTrump in #WashingtonDC! #VoteForLou #MAGA #PA". Twitter.
  50. ^ Murphy, Jan (February 10, 2018). "Lou Barletta wins state GOP backing in U.S. Senate race". The Patriot-News.
  51. ^ https://townhall.com/tipsheet/reaganmccarthy/2018/06/19/national-right-to-life-endorses-lou-barletta-for-us-senate-over-incumbent-prolife-democrat-bob-casey-n2492376
  52. ^ Students For Trump. "[email protected] has Pennsylvania values every 6 years when he's up for election. @louforsenate actually holds these values and will bring them to Washington in November!". Twitter.
  53. ^ "ABC PA ENDORSES BARLETTA FOR U.S. SENATE". ABC of Pennsylvania. October 24, 2017.
  54. ^ "Small Business Endorses Congressman Lou Barletta for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. August 14, 2018.
  55. ^ a b c "Lou Barletta Endorsed By National Electrical Contractors Association". Lou Barletta for Senate. August 14, 2018.
  56. ^ Lou Barletta. "It is an honor to have been endorsed by FOP Fort Pitt Lodge #1 for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania! Grateful for the support of Pittsburgh's finest, I will always have their back. #Lou4Senate". Twitter.
  57. ^ "For Republican primary voters, Lou Barletta for U.S. Senate". The Patriot-News. May 11, 2018.
  58. ^ Brennan, Chris (July 2, 2018). "Lou Barletta's newest ally against Bob Casey is Nigel Farage, a.k.a 'Mr. Brexit'". The Philadelphia Inquirer.
  59. ^ https://www.facebook.com/MangoforPA/photos/a.1458384694182866.1073741830.1379201718767831/1866592780028720/
  60. ^ Bob Casey Jr. "[email protected] is counting on you to vote, Pennsylvania. Are you ready?". Twitter.
  61. ^ "PA-Sen: Joe Biden Helps Bob Casey (D) Get Ready To Defeat Trump's "Political Godfather"". Daily Kos. November 29, 2017.
  62. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Cory Booker (D. NJ) Helps Sen. Bob Casey (D) Defeat Trump's Political Godfather". Daily Kos. May 21, 2018.
  63. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Is Determined To Defeat Trump's "Political Godfather"". Daily Kos. November 13, 2017.
  64. ^ "MN, PA & MT-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Fight Back Against Trump's Agenda". Daily Kos. May 31, 2018.
  65. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Bob Casey (D) Defeat Trump's Chosen Fringe Candidate". Daily Kos. February 26, 2018.
  66. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow net Neutrality Champ Bob Casey (D) Get Ready For Victory". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  67. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps Bob Casey (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump & GOP". Daily Kos. November 27, 2017.
  68. ^ "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 28, 2018.
  69. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) Helps Bob Casey (D) Defeat Trump's Political Godfather". Daily Kos. February 11, 2018.
  70. ^ Lamb, Conor (May 22, 2018). "PA-17, 01, Sen, 08, Gov, 07, 10, 06 & 05: Rep. Conor Lamb (D) Helps Bring The Blue Wave To PA". Daily Kos.
  71. ^ Wolf, Tom (May 22, 2018). "PA-Gov, 17, 08, 05, 10, 01, 06, Sen & 07: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) Brings The Blue Wave To Pennsylvania". Daily Kos.
  72. ^ "PA-Sen: Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) Helps Bob Casey (D) Fight Back Against Trump & GOP". Daily Kos. December 20, 2017.
  73. ^ "Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Candidate Endorsements".
  74. ^ "Pennsylvania - COMPAC Endorsements - UMWA". UMWA.
  75. ^ "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  76. ^ Tiffany Muller (May 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  77. ^ Dawe, John (March 30, 2018). "Equality PA endorses Senator Bob Casey, Jr. for Re-Election". Equality Pennsylvania.
  78. ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Pennsylvania Environmental Champions Senator Casey & Representative Cartwright". League of Conservation Voters. October 23, 2017.
  79. ^ https://www.ncpssm.org/pac/candidates-we-endorse-and-support/
  80. ^ Curtis, Kevin (February 16, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund : Sen. Bob Casey endorsed by the NRDC Action Fund". www.nrdcactionfund.org.
  81. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements".
  82. ^ a b "Neal Gale Announces Run for U.S. Senate in PA". Green Party US. Green Party US. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
  83. ^ "Thank you Gary Johnson for your endorsement!". Facebook. Facebook.
  84. ^ "I endorse:". Facebook. Facebook.
  85. ^ a b c "Kerns Endorsements". Dale Kerns. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
  86. ^ Facebook. Facebook https://www.facebook.com/TheFaz1996/posts/2082215255327261?notif_id=1527889367051339&notif_t=comment_mention. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  87. ^ Facebook. Facebook https://www.facebook.com/TheFaz1996/posts/2082215255327261?notif_id=1527889367051339&notif_t=comment_mention. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  88. ^ Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%
  89. ^ Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%; other with 1%
  90. ^ Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  91. ^ Neal Gale (G) and Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, neither/other with 3%
  92. ^ Dale Kerns (L) and Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%

External links

Official campaign websites
  • Lou Barletta (R) for Senate
  • Bob Casey (D) for Senate
  • Dale Kerns (L) for Senate
  • Neal Gale (G) for Senate
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