South Korean presidential election, 2017

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South Korean presidential election, 2017
South Korea
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Incumbent President

Hwang Kyo-ahn
Acting
Independent



Emblem of South Korea.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
the Republic of Korea
Constitution

The 19th South Korean presidential election is scheduled to be held on 9 May 2017, after the impeachment and dismissal of incumbent Park Geun-hye.[1] Under present law, the election will be decided in a single round on a first-past-the-post basis.

The election was originally scheduled to be held on or before 20 December 2017, but was moved after the decision of the Constitutional Court to uphold the parliament's impeachment of Park Geun-hye. In the meantime, Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn succeeded Park as acting president and will finish out the remainder of the 18th term. Acting president Hwang has indicated he will not run for a term in his own right.[2] [3] [4]

Background

Park Geun-hye of the conservative Saenuri Party won the previous presidential election in 2012, succeeding Lee Myung-bak of the same party.

The Saenuri Party lost the parliamentary election in April 2016, with opposition parties including liberal Democratic Party of Korea and People's Party winning a majority in the National Assembly. Commentators described the result as leaving Park a lame duck president, as she may not run again under South Korea's one-term presidency rule.[5][6][7] and the Nikkei Asian Review noted that, in the wake of her "crushing defeat", "rivals sense a prime opportunity to complete the power shift in the December 2017 presidential vote".[5] The Korea Times stated: "The drama of deals and power struggles for next year's election has already begun."[8]

Impeachment processes

On 9 December 2016 Park was impeached by parliament by a vote of 234 for and 56 against (with seven invalid votes and two abstentions). The Constitutional Court reviewed the motion of impeachment. Park was formally removed from office, with a unanimous ruling by all eight of the Constitutional Court's justices supporting her impeachment, on 10 March 2017. A presidential election must now be held within 60 days. In the interim, Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn succeeds Park and will see out the remainder of the 18th term.[9]

Announced candidates

Democratic Party

Liberty Korea Party

People's Party

Bareun Party

Justice Party


Potential candidates

The five parties represented in the National Assembly are the ruling conservative Liberty Korea Party, the liberal Democratic Party of Korea, the centrist People's Party, the newly established conservative Bareun Party, and the progressive Justice Party. Potential candidates are listed below by their present party-political affiliation.

Christian Liberal Party

Nonpartisan

Declined

  • Hwang Kyo-ahn, incumbent acting President (2016–present), Prime Minister (2015–present), former Minister of Justice (2013–15) announced that he would not be running for the presidency on 15 March 2017.[21]
  • Kim Boo-kyum, member of the National Assembly for Daegu (2016–present), former member for Gunpo (2000–12),[5][10] announced that he would not be running for the presidency on 7 February 2017.[22]
  • Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations (2007–2016), was considering running as a non-partisan candidate but announced on 1 February 2017 that he would not be running for the presidency.[23][24][5][8]
  • Park Won-soon, Mayor of Seoul (2011–present), announced that he would not be running for the presidency on 26 January 2017.[25]
  • Oh Se-hoon, former Mayor of Seoul (2006-2011), announced that he would not be running for the presidency on 13 January 2017.[26]
  • Kim Moo-sung, former Chairman of the Saenuri Party (2014-2016), announced that he would not be running for the presidency on 24 November 2016.[27]

Opinion polling

Polls for the Democratic Party Nomination

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size
Lee Jae-myung Moon Jae-in Ahn Hee-jung Kim Boo-kyum Park Won-soon Kim Jong-in Choi Sung
Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Realmeter 17.03.10 374 21.9% 52.7% 22.5% 0.4%
R&Search 17.02.27–17.02.28 1,111 15.5% 38.0% 29.8% 0.2%
Korea Research 17.02.05–17.02.06 2,016 8.8% 36.9% 26.2% 2.4%
Realmeter 17.02.01 528 13.9% 31.4% 23.7% 4.1% 3.7% 0.5%
Realmeter 17.01.16–17.01.17 1,004 13.5% 32.8% 10.8% 5.6% 5.3% 5% 1.1%

Polling for the General Election

2017 March-April

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size
Sim Sang-jung Lee Jae-myung Moon Jae-in Ahn Hee-jung Ahn Cheol-soo Sohn Hak-kyu Yoo Seong-min Nam Kyung-pil Hwang Kyo-ahn Hong Jun-pyo
Justice Democratic Democratic Democratic People's People's Bareun Bareun Independent Liberty
Realmeter 17.03.15 1,015 4.1% 10.3% 37.1% 16.8% 12.0% 1.8% 4.8% 1.8% - 7.1%
Korea Research 17.03.14 1,000 1.1% 8.9% 30.7% 13.3% 8.9% 0.9% 1.4% 0.7% 9.6% 2.2%
Realmeter 17.03.10 1,008 3.3% 9.7% 36.0% 14.5% 11.3% 2.6% 2.4% 1.0% 10.1% 2.4%
17.03.10 The Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye
Korea Research 17.03.06-17.03.07 1,000 1.3% 8.4% 30.7% 13.7% 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 11.1% 1.8%
Realmeter 17.02.27–17.03.03 2,025 1.7% 8.9% 36.4% 12.6% 10.8% 2.9% 2.8% 1.3% 14.9% 3.8%

2017 January- February

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size
Sim Sang-jung Lee Jae-myung Moon Jae-in Ahn Hee-jung Ahn Cheol-soo Sohn Hak-kyu Yoo Seong-min Nam Kyung-pil Ban Ki-moon Hwang Kyo-ahn Hong Jun-pyo
Justice Democratic Democratic Democratic People's People's Bareun Bareun Independent Independent Liberty
R&Search 17.02.27–17.02.28 1,111 0.9% 9.8% 37.6% 15.5% 11.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 12.5% 1.4%
Korea Research 17.02.24–17.02.25 1,000 1.1% 10.1% 30.9% 15.8% 7.8% 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% 10.3% 1.6%
Gallup Korea 17.02.21–17.02.23 1,006 8% 32% 21% 8% 2% 8%
Realmeter 17.02.20–17.02.22 1,508 1.1% 10.1% 32.4% 19.2% 10.5% 1.7% 3.3% 1.8% 11.6% 3.3%
Realmeter 17.02.13–17.02.15 1,515 2.5% 7.0% 32.7% 19.3% 8.6% 2.8% 3.9% 1.3% 16.5% 1.3%
Realmeter 17.02.06–17.02.08 1,508 2.6% 8.2% 33.2% 15.7% 9.1% 3.1% 3.5% 1.6% 15.9% 1.4%
Korea Research 17.02.05–17.02.06 2,016 0.7% 6.3% 29.8% 14.2% 6.3% 1.1% 3.2% 0.6% 11.2%
Gallup Korea 17.02.01–17.02.02 1,003 0.6% 7% 32% 10% 7% 0.5% 3% 8% 9%
Realmeter 17.02.01 1,009 1.8% 9.9% 26.1% 11.1% 9.3% 2.7% 4.3% 2% 12.1% 1.4%
Realmeter 17.01.23–17.01.24 1,004 1.0% 9.5% 32.8% 6.4% 7.9% 2.0% 2.4% 0.9% 15.4% 7.4%
Realmeter 17.01.16–17.01.18 1,507 1.9% 9% 28.1% 4% 7.4% 1.8% 2.2% 1.2% 21.8% 4% 0.7%
Korea Research 17.01.15–17.01.16 1,000 - 9.5% 31.4% 3.9% 4.8% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% 20%
Gallup Korea 17.01.10–17.01.12 1,007 12% 31% 6% 7% 2% 3% 20% 5%
R&Search 17.01.01–17.01.02 1,153 - 10% 32.2% 3.9% 5.9% 3.1% 2.1% 0.7% 21.3% 7.2%

2016

Date Polling firm Ban Ki-Moon
(Nonpartisan)
Moon Jae-in
(Minjoo)
Ahn Cheol-so
(People's)
Kim Moo-sung
(Saenuri)
Undecided/
Refused
Lead
14-15 Nov 2016 Realmeter 31.5% 32.7% 22.8% 13% 1.2
37.6% 46.2% 16.2% 8.6
37.2% 39.9% 22.9% 2.7
19-20 Sep 2016 Realmeter 38.5% 30.6% 18.0% 12.9% 7.9
46.7% 38.4% 14.9% 8.3
46.3% 32.5% 21.2% 13.8
13-14 Jun 2016 Realmeter 36.5% 34.9% 19.0% 9.6% 1.6
44.2% 44.9% 10.9% 0.7
40.9% 33.7% 25.4% 7.2
18–19 Apr 2016 Realmeter 42.3% 42.8% 14.9% 0.5
41.0% 32.3% 26.7% 8.7
14–15 Mar 2016 Realmeter 44.0% 45.0% 11.0% 1.0
37.2% 44.2% 18.6% 7.0
17–19 Feb 2016 Realmeter 44.3% 45.0% 10.7% 0.7
37.7% 43.8% 18.5% 6.1

References

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  2. ^ "황교안 대선 불출마 선언" (in (Korean)). Kyunghyang Shinmun. 15 March 2017. Retrieved 15 March 2017. 
  3. ^ http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/03/356_225762.html
  4. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/15/world/asia/south-korea-election-park-geun-hye.html?_r=0
  5. ^ a b c d e Minegishi, Hiroshi (15 April 2016). "South Korean politicians jostle to succeed lamest of ducks". Nikkei Asian Review. Retrieved 17 April 2016. 
  6. ^ "Vote defeat for South Korea's Park raises 'lame duck' prospect". Reuters. 14 April 2016. Retrieved 17 April 2016. 
  7. ^ "Conservative rout leaves South Korea's Park Geun-hye a lame duck". The Australian. 14 April 2016. Retrieved 17 April 2016. 
  8. ^ a b c d e Jun, Ji-hye (13 April 2016). "Attention to shift to 2017 presidential race". The Korea Times. Retrieved 17 April 2016. 
  9. ^ "PressTV-South Korean MPs vote to impeach president". Presstv.com. 9 December 2016. Retrieved 10 March 2017. 
  10. ^ a b c "Split voting could boost fate of People's Party". Korea JoongAng Daily. 12 April 2016. Retrieved 24 April 2016. 
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