Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020

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Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020
United States
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2,472 delegate votes to the Republican National Convention
1,237 delegates votes needed to win

Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump



The 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses will be a series of electoral contests taking place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, these elections are designed to select the 2,472 delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, who will select the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2020 election. The delegates also approve the party platform and vice-presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump formally announced his bid for re-election on February 17, 2017, and will likely be the nominee, should his nomination not be seriously contested.

Candidates

An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

Numerous pundits, journalists and politicians have speculated that the 2020 election cycle might see a significant Republican Party challenger to President Donald Trump, namely because of his historic unpopularity in polls, his association with allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and his support of unpopular policies and decisions.[1][2][3] Several Republican critics of the Trump Administration have indeed hinted at or are reportedly considering challenging Trump. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has indicated that he will run for election to replace outgoing Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, which would give him a significant platform to challenge Donald Trump should he win.[4] Other Republicans such as Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Arizona Senator Jeff Flake have spent much of 2017 and 2018 leading a Republican opposition to Trump in their outspoken criticism of the President on the Senate floor. 2016 Presidential Candidates Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina have also indicated interest in challenging Trump. In the case of Ohio Governor John Kasich, rumors have circulated that he might consider a joint ticket with Colorado Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper.[5] These rumors were swiftly denied, however but much speculation still exists.

Declared major candidates

Candidate Most recent position Candidacy Total pledged delegates Contests won[a]
Official Portrait of President Donald Trump (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump
President of the United States from New York
(2017–present)
February 17, 2017
(Campaign)
0 / 2472 (0%)

N/A

Other declared candidates

During the 2016 cycle, hundreds of people sent the required forms to the Federal Election Commission to declare their candidacies for President. Among this cycle's include:

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Jack Fellure.jpg
Jack Fellure
October 3, 1931
(age 86)
Midkiff, West Virginia
Prohibition nominee for President in 2012
Candidate for President 19882008 and 2016
Flag of West Virginia.svg
West Virginia
November 9, 2016
FEC Filing
[6]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party.[10] A poor showing for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections may lead to an influx of ambitious politicians vying to reclaim the nomination from Trump, as Arizona Senator John McCain has said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president." Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have all expressed doubts that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."[11][12] Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Flake has claimed that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.[13]

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Polling

National polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Tom Cotton Ted Cruz Jeff Flake John Kasich Mike Pence Ben Sasse Donald Trump Others Undecided
Emerson Polling[58] 600 January 8-11, 2018 ± 3.9% 68% 18% 14%
Economist/YouGov Poll[59] 1,500 January 8-9, 2018 ± 3.3% 57% 25% 17%
Public Policy Polling[60] 284 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 70% 24% 6%
21% 64% 15%
16% 74% 10%
22% 62% 15%
19% 70% 11%
Public Policy Polling[61] 183 October 27–29, 2017 57% 36% 8%
27% 57% 16%
14% 70% 16%
28% 53% 19%
24% 66% 11%
Public Policy Polling[62] 268 September 22–25, 2017 61% 27% 12%
15% 68% 17%
21% 59% 21%
18% 68% 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[63]
(Trump-aligned)
1,500 August 2017 ± 2.5% 1% 14% 10% 1% 50% 24%
Public Policy Polling[17] 275 August 18–21, 2017 57% 29% 13%
22% 62% 17%
24% 52% 23%
21% 68% 11%
Opinion Savvy[16] 221 August 16–17, 2017 ± 6.6% 12% 15% 65% 8%
220 8% 17% 68% 7%
Marist Poll[64] 361 August 8–12, 2017 ± 5.2% 23% 64% 3% 10%
33% 56% 3% 8%

Statewide polling

New Hampshire New Hampshire

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error John Kasich Mike Pence Donald Trump Others Undecided
University of New Hampshire[65] 191 October 3–15, 2017 ± 7.1% 47% 23% 30%
American Research Group[66] 600 August 4–6, 2017 ± 4.0% 52% 40% 8%
41% 27% 32%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party.
  1. ^ According to popular vote or pledged delegate count (not counting superdelegates); see below for detail.

References

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  3. ^ McManus, Doyle. "Trump will have a 2020 primary challenger. But who will it be? – LA Times". latimes.com. Retrieved 2018-01-06. 
  4. ^ Hooper, Molly K. (2018-01-05). "WATCH: GOP senators urge Romney to run for Senate". TheHill. Retrieved 2018-01-06. 
  5. ^ CNN, Mark Preston,. "Source: Kasich, Hickenlooper consider unity presidential ticket in 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2018-01-06. 
  6. ^ "Jack Fellure" (PDF). Retrieved June 22, 2017. 
  7. ^ a b Smith, Allan (August 23, 2017). "Mark Cuban says it's 'possible' he'll run for president: 'When I have something to offer, I will'". Business Insider. Retrieved August 28, 2017. 
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  9. ^ Pandian, Ananth (August 23, 2017). "Mark Cuban doesn't rule out presidential run in 2020". 247Sports.com. Retrieved August 28, 2017. 
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  13. ^ Kaczynski, Andrew (August 24, 2017). "Sen. Jeff Flake: Trump 'inviting' 2020 primary challenge by how he's governing". CNN. Retrieved October 22, 2017. 
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  16. ^ a b "National Issues Poll" (PDF). August 18, 2017. Retrieved August 19, 2017. 
  17. ^ a b Jensen, Tom (August 23, 2017). "Trump Holds Steady After Charlottesville; Supporters Think Whites, Christians Face Discrimination" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved August 23, 2017. 
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  28. ^ Blake, Aaron (2017-10-27). "Analysis | The top 5 Republicans who could challenge Trump in 2020". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2017-11-14. 
  29. ^ Shelbourne, Mallory (July 2, 2017). "Sasse dodges question on 2020". The Hill. Retrieved July 8, 2017. 
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  48. ^ Berrien, Hank (May 18, 2017). "Is This A Sign That Vice President Pence Will Run in 2020?". The Daily Wire. Retrieved June 15, 2017. 
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  63. ^ Nguyen, Tina (August 24, 2017). "TRUMP WOULD ONLY GET 50 PERCENT OF VOTES IN 2020 PRIMARY". Vanity Fair. Retrieved August 26, 2017. 
  64. ^ Miringoff, Lee M.; Carvalho, Barbara L.; Griffith, Mary E. (August 16, 2017). "Trump at Lowest Point With 35% Job Approval Rating… Crack at the Base" (PDF). Marist Poll. Retrieved August 18, 2017. 
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  66. ^ "2020 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary Ballots". American Research Group. Retrieved August 8, 2017. 
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