Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020

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Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020

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2,472 delegate votes to the Republican National Convention
1,237 delegates votes needed to win


Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump



The 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses will be a series of electoral contests taking place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, these elections are designed to select the 2,472 delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, who will select the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2020 election. The delegates also approve the party platform and vice-presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump formally launched his bid for re-election on February 17, 2017.

Candidates

An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

Numerous pundits, journalists and politicians have speculated that the 2020 election cycle might see a significant Republican Party challenger to President Donald Trump, namely because of his historic unpopularity in polls, his association with allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and his support of unpopular policies and decisions.[1][2][3] Several Republican critics of the Trump Administration have indeed hinted at or are reportedly considering challenging Trump. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has indicated that he will run for election to replace outgoing Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, which would give him a significant platform to challenge Donald Trump should he win.[4] Other Republicans such as Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Arizona Senator Jeff Flake have spent much of 2017 and 2018 leading a Republican opposition to Trump in their outspoken criticism of the President on the Senate floor. 2016 Presidential Candidates Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina have also indicated interest in challenging Trump. In the case of Ohio Governor John Kasich, rumors have circulated that he might consider a joint ticket with Colorado Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper.[5] These rumors were swiftly denied, but much speculation still exists.

Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicts that Trump may not seek a second term if he succeeds in keeping all of his campaign promises and "[makes] America great again," à la James K. Polk.[6]

However, Flake and Kasich have been to New Hampshire to reportedly "test the waters."[7]

Declared major candidates

Candidate Most recent position Candidacy Total pledged delegates Contests won[a]
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump
President of the United States
from New York

(2017–present)
February 17, 2017
(Campaign)
0 / 2472 (0%)

N/A

Other declared candidates

During the 2016 cycle, hundreds of people sent the required forms to the Federal Election Commission to declare their candidacies for President. Among this cycle's include:

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Jack Fellure.jpg
Jack Fellure
October 3, 1931
(age 86)
Midkiff, West Virginia
Prohibition nominee for President in 2012
Candidate for President 19882008 and 2016
Flag of West Virginia.svg
West Virginia
November 9, 2016
FEC Filing
[8]
Jonathon Sharkey 1.JPG
Jonathon Sharkey
April 2, 1964
(age 54)
Elizabeth, New Jersey
Professional wrestler
Candidate for President in 2004, 2008, and 2012
Candidate for Governor of Minnesota in 2006
Candidate for U.S. Representative from Florida in 2002
Candidate for U.S. Senate from Indiana in 2000
Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Jersey in 2000
Flag of Florida.svg
Florida
August 17, 2011
FEC Filing
[9]
Brad Thor signing books.jpg
Brad Thor
August 21, 1969
(age 48)
Chicago, Illinois
Spy thriller novelist
Conservative commentator
Flag of Illinois.svg
Illinois
April 21, 2018 [10]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Potential candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Withdrew from considieration

Endorsements

Donald Trump endorsements
Brad Thor endorsements
Individuals
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors

Polling

National polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Tom Cotton Ted Cruz Jeff Flake John Kasich Mike Pence Ben Sasse Donald Trump Others Undecided
CNN/SSRS Poll[92] 458 March 22, 2018 – March 25, 2018 ± 3.7% 75% 20% 4%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times National Poll[93] 3,862 December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 ± 2% 75% 25%
Emerson Polling[94] 600 January 8–11, 2018 ± 3.9% 68% 18% 14%
Public Policy Polling[95] 284 December 11–12, 2017 ± 3.3% 70% 24% 6%
21% 64% 15%
16% 74% 10%
22% 62% 15%
19% 70% 11%
PRRI 2017 American Values Survey[96] 846 October 18–30, 2017 ± 2.6% 59% 34% 7%
Public Policy Polling[97] 183 October 27–29, 2017 57% 36% 8%
27% 57% 16%
14% 70% 16%
28% 53% 19%
24% 66% 11%
Public Policy Polling[49] 268 September 22–25, 2017 61% 27% 12%
15% 68% 17%
21% 59% 21%
18% 68% 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[98]
(Trump-aligned)
1,500 August 2017 ± 2.5% 1% 14% 10% 1% 50% 24%
Public Policy Polling[50] 275 August 18–21, 2017 57% 29% 13%
22% 62% 17%
24% 52% 23%
21% 68% 11%
Opinion Savvy[99] 221 August 16–17, 2017 ± 6.6% 12% 15% 65% 8%
220 8% 17% 68% 7%
Marist Poll[100] 361 August 8–12, 2017 ± 5.2% 23% 64% 3% 10%
33% 56% 3% 8%

Statewide polling

New Hampshire New Hampshire

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error John Kasich Mike Pence Donald Trump Others Undecided
University of New Hampshire[101] 162 January 28 – February 10, 2018 ± 7.8% 60% 18% 23%
University of New Hampshire[102] 191 October 3–15, 2017 ± 7.1% 47% 23% 30%
American Research Group[103] 600 August 4–6, 2017 ± 4.0% 52% 40% 8%
41% 27% 32%

Ohio Ohio

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error John Kasich Donald Trump Others Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University[104] 261 February 28 - March 9, 2018 ± 6.0% 27% 62% 11%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "a" defined multiple times with different content (see the help page). Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "a" defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  1. ^ According to popular vote or pledged delegate count (not counting superdelegates); see below for detail.

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