Next German federal election

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Next German federal election
Germany
← 2017 On or before 24 October 2021

All 598 seats in the Bundestag (overhang and leveling seats possible)
300+ seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Angela Merkel June 2017.jpg 2017-07-21 Martin Schulz 0789.JPG 2017.07.22.200910 Alice Weidel AfD-Informationsveranstaltung Schriesheim (cropped).jpg
Leader Angela Merkel Martin Schulz Alice Weidel
Alexander Gauland
Party CDU/CSU SPD AfD
Leader since 10 April 2000 19 March 2017
Leader's seat Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I North Rhine-Westphalia list Baden-Württemberg list & Brandenburg list
Last election 246 seats, 32.9% 153 seats, 20.5% 94 seats, 12.6%

  ChristianLindner-FDP-1 (cropped 1).jpg 2014-09-11 - Sahra Wagenknecht MdB - 8301.jpg Katrin Göring-Eckardt (cropped).jpg
Leader Christian Lindner Sahra Wagenknecht
Dietmar Bartsch
Katrin Göring-Eckardt
Cem Özdemir
Party FDP Left Green
Leader since 7 December 2013 – (Göring-Eckardt)
15 November 2008 (Özdemir)
Leader's seat North Rhine-Westphalia list North Rhine-Westphalia list & Mecklenburg-Vorpommern list Thuringia list & Baden-Württemberg list
Last election 80 seats, 10.7% 69 seats, 9.2% 67 seats, 8.9%

Incumbent Chancellor

Pending coalition formation



The next German federal election for the 20th Bundestag will be held no later than 24 October 2021.

Background

Previous election

The 2017 federal election was held after a four-year grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD. Though the CDU/CSU was returned with more seats than any other party, both it and the SPD suffered significant losses. SPD leadership, recognizing the party's unsatisfactory performance after four years in government, announced that it would go into opposition.[1] With the CDU/CSU having pledged not to work with either the AfD nor The Left before the election, the only remaining option for a majority government is a Jamaica coalition consisting of the CDU/CSU, FDP, and the Greens. Incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she would pursue coalition talks with the FDP and the Greens, both of which are open to the possibility of a Jamaica coalition.[2]

Electoral system

Germany uses the mixed-member proportional representation system, a system of proportional representation combined with elements of first-past-the-post voting. The Bundestag has 598 nominal members, elected for a four-year term; these seats are distributed between the sixteen German states in proportion to the states' population eligible to vote.[3]

Every elector has two votes: a constituency vote (first vote) and a party list vote (second vote). 299 members are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting solely based on first votes. The second votes are used to produce a proportional number of seats for parties, first in the states, and then in the Bundestag. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method. If a party wins fewer constituency seats in a state than its second votes would entitle it to, it receives additional seats from the relevant state list. Parties can file lists in every single state under certain conditions – for example, a fixed number of supporting signatures. Parties can receive second votes only in those states in which they have successfully filed a state list.[3]

If a party, by winning single-member constituencies in one state, receives more seats than it would be entitled to according to its second vote share in that state (so-called overhang seats), the other parties receive compensation seats. Owing to this provision, the Bundestag usually has more than 598 members. The 19th and current Bundestag, for example, has 709 seats: 598 regular seats and 111 overhang and compensation seats. Overhang seats are calculated at the state level, so many more seats are added to balance this out among the different states, adding more seats than would be needed to compensate for overhang at the national level in order to avoid negative vote weight.[3]

In order to qualify for seats based on the party-list vote share, a party must either win three single-member constituencies or exceed a threshold of 5% of the second votes nationwide. If a party only wins one or two single-member constituencies and fails to get at least 5% of the second votes, it keeps the single-member seat(s), but other parties that accomplish at least one of the two threshold conditions receive compensation seats.[3] In the most recent example of this, during the 2002 election, the PDS won only 4.0% of the second votes votes nationwide, but won two constituencies in the state of Berlin.[4] The same applies if an independent candidate wins a single-member constituency,[3] which has not happened since the 1949 West German federal election.[4]

If a voter cast a first vote for a successful independent candidate or a successful candidate whose party failed to qualify for proportional representation, his or her second vote does count toward proportional representation. However, it does count toward whether the elected party exceeds the 5% threshold.[3]

Parties representing recognized national minorities (currently Danes, Frisians, Sorbs, and Romani people) are exempt from the 5% threshold, but normally only run in state elections.[3]

Date

The Basic Law and the federal election code provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag.[5] The 19th Bundestag held its first sitting on 24 October 2017.[6] Therefore, the next election will be held on one of the following possible dates:

  • 29 August 2021 (Sunday)
  • 5 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 12 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 19 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 26 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 3 October 2021 (Sunday and German Unity Day)
  • 10 October 2021 (Sunday)
  • 17 October 2021 (Sunday)
  • 24 October 2021 (Sunday)

The exact date will be determined by the President of Germany.[7]

Federal elections can be held earlier if the President of Germany dissolves the Bundestag. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

  1. If the Bundestag fails to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a Chancellor's election, the President is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as Chancellor or dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
  2. If the Chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the President to dissolve the Bundestag. The President is free to grant or to deny the Chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.[5][8]

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 19th Bundestag.

Name Ideology Leader(s)[a] Whip(s) 2017 result Seats in 19th
Bundestag
Votes (%) Seats
CDU/CSU CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Angela Merkel[b] Volker Kauder 26.8%
200 / 709
200 / 709
CSU Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
6.2%[c]
46 / 709
46 / 709
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Martin Schulz Andrea Nahles 20.5%
153 / 709
153 / 709
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
National conservatism Jörg Meuthen
vacant[d]
Alexander Gauland
Alice Weidel
12.6%
94 / 709
92 / 709
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Liberalism Christian Lindner Christian Lindner 10.7%
80 / 709
80 / 709
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Katja Kipping
Bernd Riexinger
Sahra Wagenknecht
Dietmar Bartsch
9.2%
69 / 709
69 / 709
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Cem Özdemir
Simone Peter
Katrin Göring-Eckardt
Anton Hofreiter[e]
8.9%
67 / 709
67 / 709
Independents
(factionless)
Frauke Petry, Mario Mieruch
0 / 709
2 / 709

Opinion polling

Opinion polling for the next German federal election.png

Civey (SPON-Wahltrend) has continued to publish daily data since 1 October 2017, the results of which are accounted for in the polling average above but not included in the table below (except if an article on the figures is published in Spiegel Online) or shown as points in the above graph.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Turnout CDU/
CSU
SPD AfD FDP Linke Grüne Others Lead
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–16 Nov 2017 1,303 33 21 11 10 9 12 4 12
Infratest dimap 10–15 Nov 2017 1,382 31 21 12 11 10 11 4 10
INSA 10–13 Nov 2017 2,049 32 20 13.5 10.5 10.5 9 4.5 12
Forsa 6–10 Nov 2017 2,506 79 32 20 12 12 9 10 5 12
Infratest dimap 6–8 Nov 2017 1,505 30 21 13 12 9 11 4 9
Emnid 2–8 Nov 2017 1,392 30 22 13 11 10 10 4 8
INSA 3–6 Nov 2017 2,023 31 22 13.5 10.5 10.5 8.5 4 9
Civey 27 Oct–6 Nov 2017 10,012 31.0 20.4 13.7 11.0 9.4 10.2 4.3 10.6
Forsa 30 Oct–3 Nov 2017 2,005 78 32 21 12 11 9 10 5 11
Emnid 26–30 Oct 2017 1,476 31 21 12 10 10 11 5 10
INSA 27–28 Oct 2017 1,024 31 21 13 11 10 10 4 10
Forsa 23–27 Oct 2017 2,500 77 33 20 11 11 9 11 5 13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24–26 Oct 2017 1,325 33 21 12 10 9 11 4 12
Emnid 19–25 Oct 2017 2,296 31 22 12 11 9 10 5 9
INSA 23 Oct 2017 1,002 33 21 13 10 10 9 4 12
Forsa 16–20 Oct 2017 2,503 75 31 22 11 11 10 10 5 9
Allensbach 7–19 Oct 2017 1,454 33 20.5 12 12 9 9.5 4 12.5
Infratest dimap 16–18 Oct 2017 1,026 31 21 12 12 9 11 4 10
Emnid 12–18 Oct 2017 2,304 32 21 12 11 9 10 5 11
GMS 12–18 Oct 2017 1,005 31 21 13 12 10 9 4 10
INSA 13–16 Oct 2017 2,011 32 21.5 13 10 9 9.5 5 10.5
Forsa 9–13 Oct 2017 2,501 75 32 20 12 11 9 11 5 12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 10–12 Oct 2017 1,180 31 21 12 11 10 11 4 10
Infratest dimap 9–11 Oct 2017 1,506 32 20 11 11 10 10 6 12
Emnid 5–11 Oct 2017 1,960 31 21 12 11 10 10 5 10
INSA 6–9 Oct 2017 2,015 32 22 13 11 9 9 4 10
Forsa 2–6 Oct 2017 2,001 76 32 20 12 11 9 11 5 12
Emnid 28 Sep–4 Oct 2017 1,490 32 22 12 10 10 9 5 10
Forsa 25–29 Sep 2017 2,005 75 32 20 12 11 10 10 5 12
INSA 27–28 Sep 2017 1,071 31 21 13 12 9 10 4 10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–28 Sep 2017 1,425 32 21 12 10 10 11 4 11
Emnid 25–27 Sep 2017 1,038 33 21 12 11 10 10 3 12
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 76.2 32.9 20.5 12.6 10.7 9.2 8.9 5.0 12.4

By state

Berlin

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU Linke SPD Grüne AfD FDP Others Lead
Forsa 17–26 Oct 2017 1,011 23 18 20 13 11 9 6 3
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 22.7 18.8 17.9 12.6 12.0 8.9 7.1 3.9

Brandenburg

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU AfD SPD Linke FDP Grüne Others Lead
Forsa 7–9 Nov 2017 1,002 26 20 16 19 8 6 5 6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 26.7 20.2 17.6 17.2 7.1 5.0 6.3 6.5

Preferred Chancellor

Merkel–Schulz

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Angela Merkel Martin Schulz Neither
Merkel
CDU/CSU
Schulz
SPD
Forsa 6–10 Nov 2017 2,506 50 22 28
Forsa 30 Oct–3 Nov 2017 2,005 52 22 26
Forsa 23–27 Oct 2017 2,500 49 21 30
Forsa 16–20 Oct 2017 2,503 48 21 31
Forsa 9–13 Oct 2017 2,501 48 20 32
Forsa 2–6 Oct 2017 2,001 49 21 30
Forsa 25–29 Sep 2017 2,005 49 22 29

Merkel–Nahles

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Angela Merkel Andrea Nahles Neither
Merkel
CDU/CSU
Nahles
SPD
Forsa 30 Oct–3 Nov 2017 2,005 58 17 25

Political mood

The table below contains raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU/
CSU
SPD AfD FDP Linke Grüne Others Lead Nw. Un.
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–16 Nov 2017 1,303 36 23 6 10 9 13 4 13 ? ?
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24–26 Oct 2017 1,325 36 23 8 10 8 11 4 13 4 11
GMS 12–18 Oct 2017 1,005 30.6 21.4 13.2 13.2 9.5 8.7 3.4 9.2 32.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 10–12 Oct 2017 1,180 31 23 9 11 10 12 4 8 6 10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–28 Sep 2017 1,425 33 23 8 11 11 12 3 10 5 12
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 32.9 20.5 12.6 10.7 9.2 8.9 5.0 12.4 23.8

With CDU and CSU

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU SPD AfD FDP Linke Grüne CSU Others Lead
INSA 10–13 Nov 2017 2,049 25.7 20 13.5 10.5 10.5 9 6.3 4.5 5.7
INSA 3–6 Nov 2017 2,023 24.6 22 13.5 10.5 10.5 8.5 6.4 4 2.6
INSA 27–28 Oct 2017 1,024 25.7 21 13 11 10 10 5.3 4 4.7
INSA 23 Oct 2017 1,002 28.1 21 13 10 10 9 4.9 4 7.1
INSA 13–16 Oct 2017 2,011 26.7 21.5 13 10 9 9.5 5.3 5 5.2
INSA 6–9 Oct 2017 2,015 25.7 22 13 11 9 9 6.3 4 3.7
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 26.8 20.5 12.6 10.7 9.2 8.9 6.2 5.0 6.3

Notes

  1. ^ Current party leader(s)
  2. ^ As current Chancellor and leader of the CDU; Horst Seehofer is the current leader of the CSU.
  3. ^ CSU received 38.8% in Bavaria
  4. ^ The AfD has two party leaders. Since Frauke Petry left the party, one of these leader positions has fallen vacant.
  5. ^ Göring-Eckardt and Hofreiter are acting whips.[9]

References

  1. ^ "Die SPD geht in die Opposition – Schulz bleibt Parteichef". Die Zeit. 24 September 2017. Retrieved 26 September 2017. 
  2. ^ "Kommt jetzt Jamaika?". Die Zeit. 24 September 2017. Retrieved 26 September 2017. 
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Martin Fehndrich; Wilko Zicht; Matthias Cantow (22 September 2017). "Wahlsystem der Bundestagswahl". Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 26 September 2017. 
  4. ^ a b "Ergebnisse früherer Bundestagswahlen" (PDF). Der Bundeswahlleiter. 18 August 2017. Retrieved 26 September 2017. 
  5. ^ a b "Wahl zum 19. Deutschen Bundestag am 24. September 2017". Der Bundeswahlleiter. Retrieved 26 September 2017. 
  6. ^ "Neu gewählter Bundestag tritt am 24. Oktober erstmals zusammen". Deutscher Bundestag. 5 October 2017. Retrieved 8 October 2017. 
  7. ^ "Nach der Bundestagswahl". Der Bundeswahlleiter. 25 September 2017. Retrieved 26 September 2017. 
  8. ^ Martin Fehndrich (26 February 2017). "Bundeskanzlerwahl". Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 26 September 2017. 
  9. ^ "Geschäftsführender Vorstand". Bundestagsfraktion Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. 10 October 2017. Retrieved 14 October 2017. 

External links

  • Comprehensive results of the 2017 federal election (in German)
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