List of nuclear close calls

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A nuclear close call is an incident that could lead to, or could have led to, at least one unintended nuclear detonation/explosion. These incidents typically involve a perceived imminent threat to a nuclear-armed country which could lead to retaliatory strikes against the perceived aggressor. The damage caused by international nuclear exchange is not necessarily limited to the participating countries, as the hypothesized rapid climate change associated with even small-scale regional nuclear war could threaten food production worldwide—a scenario known as nuclear famine.[1]

Despite a reduction in global nuclear tensions after the end of the Cold War, estimated nuclear warhead stockpiles total roughly 15,000 worldwide, with the United States and Russia holding 90% of the total.[2]

Though exact details on many nuclear close calls are hard to come by, the analysis of particular cases has highlighted the importance of a variety of factors in preventing accidents. At an international level, this includes the importance of context and outside mediation; at the national level, effectiveness in government communications, and involvement of key decision-makers; and, at the individual level, the decisive role of individuals in following intuition and prudent decision-making, often in violation of protocol.[3]

1950s

5 November 1956
During the Suez Crisis, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) received a number of simultaneous reports—including unidentified aircraft over Turkey, Soviet MiG-21s over Syria, a downed British bomber, and unexpected maneuvers by the Soviet Black Sea Fleet through the Dardanelles—that appeared to signal a Soviet offensive. Considering previous Soviet threats to utilize conventional weapons against France and the UK, U.S. forces believed these events could trigger a NATO nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. In fact, all reports of Soviet action turned out to be erroneous, misinterpreted, or exaggerated. The perceived threat was due to a coincidental combination of events, including a wedge of swans over Turkey, a fighter escort for the Syrian president, a British bomber brought down by mechanical issues, and scheduled exercises of the Soviet fleet.[4]

1960s

5 October 1960
Radar equipment in Thule, Greenland mistakenly interpreted a moonrise over Norway as a large-scale Soviet missile launch. Upon receiving a report of the supposed attack, NORAD went on high alert. However, doubts about the authenticity of the attack arose due to the presence of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in New York as head of the USSR's UN delegation.[5][6]
24 November 1961
Staff at the Strategic Air Command Headquarters (SAC HQ) simultaneously lost contact with NORAD and multiple Ballistic Missile Early Warning System sites. Since these communication lines were designed to be redundant and independent from one another, the communications failure was interpreted as either a very unlikely coincidence or a coordinated attack. SAC HQ prepared the entire ready force for takeoff before already overhead aircraft confirmed that there did not appear to be an attack. It was later found that the failure of a single relay station in Colorado was the sole cause of the communications problem.[5]
27 October 1962
At the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Soviet patrol submarine B-59 almost launched a nuclear-tipped torpedo while under harassment by American naval forces. One of several vessels surrounded by American destroyers near Cuba, the B-59 dived to avoid detection and was unable to communicate with Moscow for a number of days.[7] The USS Beale began dropping practice depth charges to signal the B-59 to surface, however the Soviet submarine took these to be real depth charges.[8] With low batteries affecting the submarine's life support systems and without orders from Moscow, the commander of the B-59 believed that war may have already begun and ordered the use of a 10 kiloton nuclear torpedo against the American fleet. The submarine political officer agreed, but commander of the sub-flotilla Vasili Arkhipov persuaded the captain to surface and await orders.[9][10]
On the same day, an American U-2 spy plane was shot down over Cuba, and another U-2 flown by U.S. Air Force Captain Charles Maultsby strayed 300 miles into Soviet airspace. Despite orders to avoid Soviet airspace by at least 100 miles, a navigational error took the U-2 over the Chukotka Peninsula, causing Soviet MIG interceptors to scramble and pursue the aircraft.[4][11] American F-102A interceptors armed with GAR-11 Falcon nuclear air-to-air missiles (each with a 0.25 kiloton yield) were then scrambled to escort the U-2 into friendly airspace.[12] Individual pilots were capable of arming and launching their missiles.
9 November 1965
The Command Center of the Office of Emergency Planning went on full alert after a massive power outage in the NE United States. Several nuclear bomb detectors—used to distinguish between regular power outages and power outages caused by a nuclear blast—near major U.S. cities malfunctioned due to circuit errors, creating the illusion of a nuclear attack.[4]
23 May 1967
A powerful solar flare accompanied by a coronal mass ejection interfered with multiple NORAD radars over the Northern Hemisphere. This interference was initially interpreted as intentional jamming of the radars by the Soviets, thus an act of war. A nuclear bomber counter-strike was nearly launched by the U.S.[13]

1970s

9 November 1979
A computer error at NORAD headquarters led to alarm and full preparation for a nonexistent large-scale Soviet attack.[5] NORAD notified national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski that the Soviet Union had launched 250 ballistic missiles with a trajectory for the United States, stating that a decision to retaliate would need to be made by the president within 3 to 7 minutes. NORAD computers then placed the number of incoming missiles at 2,200.[14] Strategic Air Command was notified, nuclear bombers prepared for takeoff, and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) crews were presumably placed on alert. Within six to seven minutes of the initial response, satellite and radar systems were able to confirm that the attack was a false alarm.[15] It was found that a training scenario was inadvertently loaded into an operational computer. Commenting on the incident, U.S. State Department adviser Marshall Shulman stated that "false alerts of this kind are not a rare occurrence. There is a complacency about handling them that disturbs me."[14] In the months following the incident there were 3 more false alarms at NORAD, 2 of them caused by faulty computer chips.[5]

1980s

15 March 1980
One of four Soviet missiles launched from a submarine near the Kuril Islands was detected by an American early warning sensor and determined to be heading towards the United States.[5]
26 September 1983
Several weeks after the downing of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 over Soviet airspace, a satellite early-warning system near Moscow reported the launch of one American Minuteman ICBM. Soon after, it reported that 5 missiles had been launched. Convinced that a real American offensive would involve many more missiles, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov of the Air Defense Forces refused to acknowledge the threat as legitimate and continued to convince his superiors that it was a false alarm until this could be confirmed by ground radar.[16][17]

1990s

25 January 1995
Russian President Boris Yeltsin became the first world leader to activate a nuclear briefcase after Russian radar systems detected the launch of a Norwegian Black Brant XII research rocket being used to study the Northern Lights.[18] Russian strategic ballistic missile submarines were put on alert in preparation for a possible retaliatory strike.[19] When it became clear the rocket did not pose a threat to Russia and was not part of a larger attack, the alarm was cancelled. Russia was in fact one of a number of countries earlier informed of the launch; however, the information had not reached the Russian radar operators.[5]

2010s

23 October 2010
Commanders at a U.S. Air Force base in Wyoming lost most forms of command, control, and security monitoring over 50 nuclear ICBMs for approximately 45 minutes. The missiles were taken offline after a suspected hardware problem caused multiple errors with control computers.[20] Although military officials maintain that the missiles remained under control and were not susceptible to outside attempts to gain control, former Air Force launch officer Bruce G. Blair expressed concerns that missiles in this status could be vulnerable to launch attempts by hackers or compromised missile crews.[21]

See also

References

  1. ^ Fromm, M.; Stocks, B.; Servranckx, R.; et al. (2006). "Smoke in the Stratosphere: What Wildfires have Taught Us About Nuclear Winter". Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union. 87 (52 Fall Meet. Suppl.): Abstract U14A–04. Bibcode:2006AGUFM.U14A..04F. Archived from the original on October 6, 2014. 
  2. ^ "Nuclear Weapons: Who has what at a glance". Arms Control Association. 
  3. ^ Lewis, Patricia; Williams, Heather; Pelopidas, Benoit; Aghlani, Sasan (28 April 2014). "Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy" (PDF). Chatham House Report. 
  4. ^ a b c Philips, Alan F. "20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War". Nuclear Files. Retrieved 5 April 2016. 
  5. ^ a b c d e f "Close Calls with Nuclear Weapons" (PDF). Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 5 April 2016. 
  6. ^ Carlson, Peter (2009). K Blows Top: A Cold War Comic Interlude Starring Nikita Khrushchev, America's Most Unlikely Tourist. PublicAffairs. ISBN 978-1-58648-497-2. 
  7. ^ Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, Vintage, Random House, 2009.
  8. ^ "Chronology of Submarine Contact During the Cuban Missile Crisis". National Security Archive of the George Washington University. Retrieved 15 November 2010. 
  9. ^ Edward Wilson (2012-10-27). "Thank you Vasili Arkhipov, the man who stopped nuclear war". The Guardian. Retrieved 4 August 2016. 
  10. ^ Noam Chomsky (2004). Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance. New York: Henry Holt. p. 74. ISBN 0-8050-7688-3. 
  11. ^ Michael Dobbs (June 2008). "Lost in Enemy Airspace". Vanity Fair. Retrieved 29 August 2016. 
  12. ^ "Air-to-air Missile Non-comparison Table". X-Plane. Retrieved 29 August 2016. 
  13. ^ Wall, Michael D. (9 August 2016). "How a 1967 Solar Storm Nearly Led to Nuclear War". Space.com. Retrieved 12 August 2016. 
  14. ^ a b "The 3 A.M. Phone Call". The National Security Archive. George Washington University. 1 March 2012. Retrieved 4 August 2016. 
  15. ^ "CBC Digital Archives". CBC. 
  16. ^ Hoffman, David (10 February 1999). "I Had A Funny Feeling in My Gut". Washington Post. Retrieved 4 August 2016. 
  17. ^ Shane, Scott. "Cold War's Riskiest Moment". Baltimore Sun, 31 August 2003 (article reprinted as The Nuclear War That Almost Happened in 1983). Archived from the original on 19 August 2006. 
  18. ^ Hoffman, David (15 March 1998). "Cold-War Doctrines Refuse to Die". Washington Post Foreign Service. 
  19. ^ "January 25, 1995—The Norwegian Rocket Incident". United States European Command. 23 January 2012. Archived from the original on 21 September 2012. 
  20. ^ Ambinder, Marc (26 October 2010). "Failure Shuts Down Squadron of Nuclear Missiles". The Atlantic. Retrieved 11 August 2016. 
  21. ^ Blair, Bruce (11 November 2010). "Could Terrorists Launch America's Nuclear Missiles?". TIME. Retrieved 11 August 2016. 
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