Induced seismicity

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Induced seismicity refers to typically minor earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on the Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant in California which averaged two M4 events and 15 M3 events every year from 2004 to 2009.[1]

Results of ongoing multi-year research on induced earthquakes by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) published in 2015 suggested that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma, such as the 1952 magnitude 5.7 El Reno earthquake may have been induced by deep injection of waste water by the oil industry. "Earthquake rates have recently increased markedly in multiple areas of the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), especially since 2010, and scientific studies have linked the majority of this increased activity to wastewater injection in deep disposal wells."[2][3][4][5][6][7]:2[8]

Induced seismicity can also be caused by the injection of carbon dioxide as the storage step of carbon capture and storage, which aims to sequester carbon dioxide captured from fossil fuel production or other sources in earth’s crust as a means of climate change mitigation. This effect has been observed in Oklahoma and Saskatchewan.[9] Though safe practices and existing technologies can be utilized to reduce the risk of induced seismicity due to injection of carbon dioxide, the risk is still significant if the storage is large in scale. The consequences of the induced seismicity could disrupt preexisting faults in the Earth’s crust as well as compromise the seal integrity of the storage locations.[10]

The seismic hazard from induced seismicity can be assessed using similar techniques as for natural seismicity, although accounting for non-stationary seismicity.[11] Subsequently, a risk assessment can be performed, taking account of the seismic hazard and the vulnerability of the exposed elements at risk (e.g. local population and the building stock).[12] Finally, the risk can, theoretically at least, be mitigated, either through modifications to the hazard[13][14] or a reduction to the exposure or the vulnerability.[15]

Causes

Diagram showing the effects that fluid injection and withdrawal can have on nearby faults can cause induced seismicity.

There are many ways in which induced seismicity has been seen to occur. In the past several years, some energy technologies that inject or extract fluid from the Earth, such as oil and gas extraction and geothermal energy development, have been found or suspected to cause seismic events. Some energy technologies also produce wastes that may be managed through disposal or storage by injection deep into the ground. For example, waste water from oil and gas production and carbon dioxide from a variety of industrial processes may be managed through underground injection.

Artificial lakes

The column of water in a large and deep artificial lake alters in-situ stress along an existing fault or fracture. In these reservoirs, the weight of the water column can significantly change the stress on an underlying fault or fracture by increasing the total stress through direct loading, or decreasing the effective stress through the increased pore water pressure. This significant change in stress can lead to sudden movement along the fault or fracture, resulting in an earthquake.[16] Reservoir-induced seismic events can be relatively large compared to other forms of induced seismicity. Though understanding of reservoir-induced seismic activity is very limited, it has been noted that seismicity appears to occur on dams with heights larger than 330 feet (100 m). The extra water pressure created by large reservoirs is the most accepted explanation for the seismic activity.[17] When the reservoirs are filled or drained, induced seismicity can occur immediately or with a small time lag.

The first case of reservoir-induced seismicity occurred in 1932 in Algeria’s Oued Fodda Dam.

The largest earthquake attributed to reservoir-induced seismicity occurred at Koyna Dam

The 6.3 magnitude 1967 Koynanagar earthquake occurred in Maharashtra, India with its epicenter, fore- and aftershocks all located near or under the Koyna Dam reservoir.[18] 180 people died and 1,500 were left injured. The effects of the earthquake were felt 140 mi (230 km) away in Bombay with tremors and power outages.

During the beginnings of the Vajont Dam in Italy, there were seismic shocks recorded during its initial fill. After a landslide almost filled the reservoir in 1963, causing a massive flooding and around 2,000 deaths, it was drained and consequently seismic activity was almost non-existent.

On August 1, 1975, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake at Oroville, California, was attributed to seismicity from a large earth-fill dam and reservoir recently constructed and filled.

The filling of the Katse Dam in Lesotho, and the Nurek Dam in Tajikistan is an example.[19] In Zambia, Kariba Lake may have provoked similar effects.

The 2008 Sichuan earthquake, which caused approximately 68,000 deaths, is another possible example. An article in Science suggested that the construction and filling of the Zipingpu Dam may have triggered the earthquake.[20][21][22]

Some experts worry that the Three Gorges Dam in China may cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of earthquakes.[23]

Mining

Mining leaves voids that generally alter the balance of forces in the rock, many times causing rock bursts. These voids may collapse producing seismic waves and in some cases reactivate existing faults causing minor earthquakes.[24] Natural cavern collapse forming sinkholes would produce an essentially identical local seismic event.

Waste disposal wells

Cumulative number of earthquakes in the central U.S. The red cluster at the center of the map shows an area in and around Oklahoma which experienced the largest increase in activity since 2009.

Injecting liquids into waste disposal wells, most commonly in disposing of produced water from oil and natural gas wells, has been known to cause earthquakes. This high-saline water is usually pumped into salt water disposal (SWD) wells. The resulting increase in subsurface pore pressure can trigger movement along faults, resulting in earthquakes.[25][26]

One of the first known examles was from the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, northeast of Denver. In 1961, waste water was injected into deep strata, and this was later found to have caused a series of earthquakes.[27]

The 2011 Oklahoma earthquake near Prague, of magnitude 5.8,[28] occurred after 20 years of injecting waste water into porous deep formations at increasing pressures and saturation.[29] On September 3, 2016, an even stronger earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 occurred near Pawnee, Oklahoma, followed by nine aftershocks between magnitudes 2.6 and 3.6 within 3 1/2 hours. Tremors were felt as far away as Memphis, Tennessee, and Gilbert, Arizona. Mary Fallin, the Oklahoma governor, declared a local emergency and shutdown orders for local disposal wells were ordered by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission.[30][31] Results of ongoing multi-year research on induced earthquakes by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) published in 2015 suggested that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma, such as the 1952 magnitude 5.5 El Reno earthquake may have been induced by deep injection of waste water by the oil industry.[2] Prior to April 2015 however, the Oklahoma Geological Survey's position was that the quake was most likely due to natural causes and was not triggered by waste injection.[32] This was one of many earthquakes which have affected the Oklahoma region.

Since 2009 earthquakes have become hundreds of time more common in Oklahoma with magnitude 3 events increasing from 1 or 2 per year to 1 or 2 per day.[33] On April 21, 2015, the Oklahoma Geological Survey released a statement reversing its stance on induced earthquakes in Oklahoma: "The OGS considers it very likely that the majority of recent earthquakes, particularly those in central and north-central Oklahoma, are triggered by the injection of produced water in disposal wells."[34]

Hydrocarbon Extraction and Storage

Large-scale fossil fuel extraction can generate earthquakes.[35][36] Induced seismicity can be also related to underground gas storage operations. The 2013 September–October seismic sequence occurred 21 km off the coast of the Valencia Gulf (Spain) is probably the most known case of induced seismicity related to Underground Gas Storage operations (the Castor Project). In September 2013, after the injection operations started, the Spanish seismic network recorded a sudden increase of seismicity. More than 1,000 events with magnitudes (Ml) between 0.7 and 4.3 (the largest earthquake ever associated with gas storage operations) and located close the injection platform were recorded in about 40 days.[37][38] Due to the significant population concern the Spanish Government halted the operations. By the end of 2014, the Spanish government definitively terminated the concession of the UGS plant. Since January 2015 about 20 people who took part in the transaction and approval of the Castor Project were indicted.

Groundwater extraction

The changes in crustal stress patterns caused by the large scale extraction of groundwater has been shown to trigger earthquakes, as in the case of the 2011 Lorca earthquake.[39]

Geothermal energy

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), a new type of geothermal power technologies that do not require natural convective hydrothermal resources, are known to be associated with induced seismicity. EGS involves pumping fluids at pressure to enhance or create permeability through the use of hydraulic fracturing techniques. Hot dry rock (HDR) EGS actively creates geothermal resources through hydraulic stimulation. Depending on the rock properties, and on injection pressures and fluid volume, the reservoir rock may respond with tensile failure, as is common in the oil and gas industry, or with shear failure of the rock's existing joint set, as is thought to be the main mechanism of reservoir growth in EGS efforts.[40]

HDR and EGS systems are currently being developed and tested in Soultz-sous-Forêts (France), Desert Peak and the Geysers (U.S.), Landau (Germany), and Paralana and Cooper Basin (Australia). Induced seismicity events at the Geysers geothermal field in California has been strongly correlated with injection data.[41] The test site at Basel, Switzerland, has been shut down due to induced seismic events.

Largest Events at EGS Sites Worldwide[42]
Site Maximum Magnitude
Cerro Prieto, Baja California, Mexico[43] 6.6
The Geysers, United States 4.6
Cooper Basin, Australia 3.7
Basel, Switzerland 3.4
Rosemanowes Quarry, United Kingdom 3.1
Soultz-sous-Forêts, France 2.9

Researchers at MIT believe that seismicity associated with hydraulic stimulation can be mitigated and controlled through predictive siting and other techniques. With appropriate management, the number and magnitude of induced seismic events can be decreased, significantly reducing the probability of a damaging seismic event.[44]

Induced seismicity in Basel led to suspension of its HDR project. A seismic hazard evaluation was then conducted, which resulted in the cancellation of the project in December 2009.

Hydraulic fracturing

Hydraulic fracturing is a technique in which high-pressure fluid is injected into the low-permeable reservoir rocks in order to induce fractures to increase hydrocarbon production.[citation needed] This process is generally associated with seismic events that are too small to be felt at the surface (with magnitudes ranging from −3 to 1), although larger magnitude events are not excluded.[45] For example, several cases of larger magnitude events (M > 4) have been recorded in Canada in the unconventional resources of Alberta and British Columbia.[46]

Carbon Capture and Storage

Important of risk analysis for CCS

Operation of technologies involving long-term geologic storage of waste fluids have been shown to induce seismic activity in nearby areas, and correlation of periods of seismic dormancy with minima in injection volumes and pressures has even been demonstrated for fracking wastewater injection in Youngstown, Ohio.[47] Of particular concern to the viability of carbon dioxide storage from coal-fired power plants and similar endeavors is that the scale of intended CCS projects is much larger in both injection rate and total injection volume than any current or past operation that has already been shown to induce seismicity.[48] As such, extensive modeling must be done of future injection sites in order to assess the risk potential of CCS operations, particularly in relation to the effect of long-term carbon dioxide storage on shale caprock integrity, as the potential for fluid leaks to the surface can be quite high for even small to moderate earthquakes.[10]

Monitoring

Since geological sequestration of carbon dioxide has the potential to induce seismicity, researchers have developed methods to monitor and model the risk of injection-induced seismicity, in order to better manage the risks associated with this phenomenon. Monitoring can be conducted with measurements from an instrument like a geophone to measure the movement of the ground. Generally a network of instruments around the site of injection is used, though many current carbon dioxide injection sites do not utilize any monitoring devices. Modeling is an important technique for assessing the potential for induced seismicity, and there are two primary types of models used: physical and numerical. Physical models use measurements from the early stages of a project to forecast how the project will behave once more carbon dioxide is injected, and numerical models use numerical methods to simulate the physics of what is occurring inside the reservoir. Both modeling and monitoring are useful tools to quantify, and thus better understand and mitigate the risks associated with injection-induced seismicity.[9]

Failure mechanisms due to fluid injection

To assess induced seismicity risks associated with carbon storage, one must understand the mechanisms behind rock failure. The Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria describe shear failure on a fault plane.[49] Most generally, failure will happen on existing faults due to several mechanisms: an increase in shear stress, a decrease in normal stress or a pore pressure increase.[9] The injection of supercritical CO2 will change the stresses in the reservoir as it expands, causing potential failure on nearby faults. Injection of fluids also increases the pore pressures in the reservoir, triggering slip on existing rock weakness planes. The latter is the most common cause of induced seismicity due to fluid injection.[9]

The Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria state that

with the critical shear stress leading to failure on a fault, the cohesive strength along the fault, the normal stress, the friction coefficient on the fault plane and the pore pressure within the fault.[9][50] When  is attained, shear failure occurs and an earthquake can be felt. This process can be represented graphically on a Mohr’s circle.[9]

Comparison of risks due to CCS versus other injection methods

While there is risk of induced seismicity associated with carbon capture and storage underground on a large scale, it is currently a much less serious risk than other injections. Wastewater injection, hydraulic fracturing, and secondary recovery after oil extraction have all contributed significantly more to induced seismic events than carbon capture and storage in the last several years.[51] There have actually not been any major seismic events associated with carbon injection at this point, whereas there have been recorded seismic occurrences caused by the other injection methods. One such example is massively increased induced seismicity in Oklahoma, USA caused by injection of huge volumes of wastewater into the Arbuckle Group sedimentary rock.[52]

U.S. National Research Council report

A 2012 report from the U.S. National Research Council examined the potential for energy technologies—including shale gas recovery, carbon capture and storage, geothermal energy production, and conventional oil and gas development—to cause earthquakes.[53] The report found that only a very small fraction of injection and extraction activities among the hundreds of thousands of energy development sites in the United States have induced seismicity at levels noticeable to the public. However, although scientists understand the general mechanisms that induce seismic events, they are unable to accurately predict the magnitude or occurrence of these earthquakes due to insufficient information about the natural rock systems and a lack of validated predictive models at specific energy development sites.[54]

The report noted that hydraulic fracturing has a low risk for inducing earthquakes that can be felt by people, but underground injection of wastewater produced by hydraulic fracturing and other energy technologies has a higher risk of causing such earthquakes. In addition, carbon capture and storage—a technology for storing excess carbon dioxide underground—may have the potential for inducing seismic events, because significant volumes of fluids are injected underground over long periods of time.[54]

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Further reading

External links

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