2018 Pacific hurricane season

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2018 Pacific hurricane season
2018 Pacific hurricane season summary map.png
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed May 10, 2018
Last system dissipated Season ongoing
Strongest storm
Name Aletta
 • Maximum winds 140 mph (220 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure 943 mbar (hPa; 27.85 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions 4
Total storms 3
Hurricanes 2
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
2
Total fatalities None
Total damage None
Related articles
Pacific hurricane seasons
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

The 2018 Pacific hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific and on June 1 in the central Pacific; they will both end on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as illustrated when the first tropical depression formed on May 10. The first named storm of the season, Hurricane Aletta, formed on June 6.

Seasonal forecasts

Record Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
Average (1981-2010): 15.4 7.6 3.2 [1]
Record high activity: 1992: 27 2015: 16 2015: 11 [2]
Record low activity: 2010: 8 2010: 3 2003: 0 [2]
Date Source Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
May 24, 2018 NOAA 14–20 7–12 3–7 [3]
May 25, 2018 SMN 18 6 4 [4]
Area Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
Actual activity: EPAC 3 2 2
Actual activity: CPAC 0 0 0
Actual activity: 3 2 2

On May 24, 2018, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual forecast, predicting a 80% chance of a near- to above-average season in both the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with a total of 14–20 named storms, 7–12 hurricanes, and 3–7 major hurricanes.[3] On May 25, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first forecast for the season, predicting a total of 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes to develop.[4]

Seasonal summary

Tropical Storm Carlotta (2018) Hurricane Bud (2018) Saffir–Simpson scale

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index for the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, as of 03:00 UTC June 18, is 23.935 units.[nb 1]

The season began five days before the official start on May 15, with the first system, Tropical Depression One-E, forming on May 10. One-E dissipated two days later without intensifying further. This marks the third time in a row that a season begins with an off-season tropical cyclone. The first named storm, Hurricane Aletta, formed on June 6 and eventually became the first major hurricane of the season. Hurricane Bud formed a few days later becoming the second major hurricane of the season.

In the Central Pacific, the Pacific hurricane season officially began on June 1. The season for the entire Northeast Pacific basin will officially end on November 30.

Systems

Tropical Depression One-E

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
01E 2018-05-11 2100Z.jpg One-E track.png
Duration May 10 – May 12
Peak intensity 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min)  1006 mbar (hPa)

In early May, a westward-tracking trough or tropical wave embedded in the monsoon trough interacted with a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave. This interaction led to a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity well southwest of Mexico,[5] which the National Hurricane Center began monitoring for tropical cyclone formation on May 7.[6] The disturbance organized over the next 48 hours but lacked a well-defined center needed for classification;[7] by late on May 9, environmental conditions were becoming less favorable for development.[8] In spite of this, an increase in convection and formation of a well-defined circulation led to the designation of the season's first tropical depression at 21:00 UTC on May 10.[9] The system failed to intensify after formation and, owing to strong westerly wind shear, ultimately degenerated into a remnant low by 03:00 UTC on May 12.[10]

Hurricane Aletta

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
Aletta 2018-06-08 1825Z.jpg Aletta 2018 track.png
Duration June 6 – June 11
Peak intensity 140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min)  943 mbar (hPa)

On May 31, the NHC noted the potential for tropical development well south of Mexico over subsequent days.[11] A large area of disturbed weather formed late on June 2,[12] steadily organizing into the season's second tropical depression by 03:00 UTC on June 6 as a prominent spiral band wrapped into its center.[13] An increase in deep convection signified its development into Tropical Storm Aletta six hours later.[14] The newly-formed cyclone moved generally west-northwest after formation, slow to intensify as dry air intrusion and moderate southwesterly shear affected its cloud pattern.[15] Starting on June 7, however, the center became better located within deep convection and Aletta began a period of explosive intensification that saw its winds double from 70 mph (110 km/h) to 140 mph (220 km/h) over a span of 24 hours.[16] After attaining peak intensity, strong wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures prompted rapid weakening soon thereafter.[17] It fell below major hurricane intensity by 09:00 UTC on June 9, and ultimately to a tropical depression around 15:00 UTC on June 11.[18] After being devoid of convection for 14 hours, Aletta degenerated to a remnant low around 21:00 UTC that day.[19]

Hurricane Bud

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
Bud 2018-06-11 2024Z.jpg Bud 2018 track.png
Duration June 9 – June 15
Peak intensity 130 mph (215 km/h) (1-min)  948 mbar (hPa)

A broad area of disturbed weather formed west of Costa Rica on June 5 in association with a westward-moving tropical wave.[20] Gradual organization occurred as the wave tracked generally westward across the eastern Pacific Ocean. On June 9, the disturbance developed a well-defined surface circulation, leading to the classification of a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC.[21] Six hours later, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Bud.[22] A mid-level ridge to the storm's north directed it on a northwest heading for several days,[23] while favorable environmental conditions led to rapid intensification. Bud attained hurricane strength by 21:00 UTC on June 10,[24] and continued intensification up to its peak as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) around 06:00 UTC on June 12.[25] The effects of cold water upwelling prompted a rapid weakening trend shortly after peak, with Bud falling to a tropical storm by 12:00 UTC on June 13.[26] It made landfall near Cabo San Lucas with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) shortly after 00:00 UTC on June 15 before progressing into the Gulf of California,[27] where it ultimately degenerated to a remnant low around 21:00 UTC that day.[28]

Tropical Storm Carlotta

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Carlotta 2018-06-16 2001Z.jpg Carlotta 2018 track.png
Duration June 14 – June 19
Peak intensity 65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min)  997 mbar (hPa)

A broad area of low pressure formed south of Mexico on June 12,[29] organizing into the season's fourth tropical depression by 21:00 UTC on June 14 and further into Tropical Storm Carlotta around 18:00 UTC on June 15.[30][31] Initial forecasts showed the storm only slightly intensifying before moving ashore the coastline of Mexico;[32] instead, Carlotta stalled just offshore and strengthened to attain peak winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) as it established an inner core and eye.[33] Interaction between the system's eyewall and land prompted a swift weakening trend, and Carlotta fell to tropical depression intensity by 18:00 UTC on June 17, before degenerating to a remnant low around 03:00 UTC on June 19.[34][35]

Storm names

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2018. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season.[36] This is the same list used in the 2012 season.

  • Aletta
  • Bud
  • Carlotta
  • Daniel (unused)
  • Emilia (unused)
  • Fabio (unused)
  • Gilma (unused)
  • Hector (unused)
  • Ileana (unused)
  • John (unused)
  • Kristy (unused)
  • Lane (unused)
  • Miriam (unused)
  • Norman (unused)
  • Olivia (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Rosa (unused)
  • Sergio (unused)
  • Tara (unused)
  • Vicente (unused)
  • Willa (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

For storms that form in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, encompassing the area between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line, all names are used in a series of four rotating lists.[37] The next four names that will be slated for use in 2018 are shown below.

  • Walaka (unused)
  • Akoni (unused)
  • Ema (unused)
  • Hone (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD.

Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2018 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Refs


One-E May 10 – 12 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1006 None None None
Aletta June 6 – 11 Category 4 hurricane 140 (220) 943 Revillagigedo Islands None None
Bud June 9 – 15 Category 4 hurricane 130 (215) 948 Revillagigedo Islands, Western Mexico, Baja California Sur, Southwestern United States Unknown None
Carlotta June 14 – 19 Tropical storm 65 (100) 997 Southwestern Mexico Unknown None
Season Aggregates
4 systems May 10 – present   140 (220) 943 None None  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2018 Pacific hurricane season/ACE calcs.

References

  1. ^ "Background Information: East Pacific Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. College Park, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 22, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2014. 
  2. ^ a b National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division; Central Pacific Hurricane Center. "The Northeast and North Central Pacific hurricane database 1949–2017". United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service.  A guide on how to read the database is available here.
  3. ^ a b "Forecasters predict a near- or above-normal 2018 hurricane season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 24, 2018. 
  4. ^ a b http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/ciclones-tropicales/temporada-de-ciclones-2018
  5. ^ Forecaster AL (May 6, 2018). Tropical Weather Discussion valid 1416 UTC Sun May 6 2018 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 10, 2018. 
  6. ^ Lixion A. Avila (May 7, 2018). Special Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 10, 2018. 
  7. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 9, 2018). Special Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 10, 2018. 
  8. ^ John L. Beven II (May 9, 2018). Special Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 10, 2018. 
  9. ^ Lixion A. Avila (May 10, 2018). Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 10, 2018. 
  10. ^ John L. Beven II (May 11, 2018). Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 11, 2018. 
  11. ^ Eric S. Blake (May 31, 2018). Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 5, 2018. 
  12. ^ Eric S. Blake (June 2, 2018). Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 5, 2018. 
  13. ^ Robbie J. Berg (June 5, 2018). Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 5, 2018. 
  14. ^ Lixion A. Avila (June 6, 2018). Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 6, 2018. 
  15. ^ Robbie J. Berg (June 6, 2018). Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 7, 2018. 
  16. ^ David P. Zelinsky (June 8, 2018). Hurricane Aletta Discussion Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 8, 2018. 
  17. ^ Robbie J. Berg (June 9, 2018). Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 18 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 10, 2018. 
  18. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (June 11, 2018). Tropical Depression Aletta Public Advisory Number 24 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2018. 
  19. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (June 8, 2018). Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number 25 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 11, 2018. 
  20. ^ Robbie Berg (June 5, 2018). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 9, 2018. 
  21. ^ David Zelinsky (June 9, 2018). "Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 9, 2018. 
  22. ^ Lixion Avila (June 10, 2018). "Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 2". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 10, 2018. 
  23. ^ Richard J. Pasch (June 10, 2018). Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 13, 2018. 
  24. ^ Lixion A. Avila (June 10, 2018). Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 13, 2018. 
  25. ^ Richard J. Pasch (June 12, 2018). Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 13, 2018. 
  26. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (June 13, 2018). Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 15A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2018. 
  27. ^ John P. Cangialosi (June 14, 2018). Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 21A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 13, 2018. 
  28. ^ Michael J. Brennan (June 13, 2018). Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 25 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 15, 2018. 
  29. ^ Eric S. Blake (June 12, 2018). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2018. 
  30. ^ Eric S. Blake (June 14, 2018). Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2018. 
  31. ^ Eric S. Blake (June 15, 2018). Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2018. 
  32. ^ Eric S. Blake (June 15, 2018). Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2018. 
  33. ^ John P. Cangialosi (June 16, 2018). Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2018. 
  34. ^ Richard J. Pasch (June 17, 2018). Tropical Depression Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2018. 
  35. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (June 18, 2018). Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 18 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 18, 2018. 
  36. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Names". National Hurricane Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2013-04-11. Archived from the original on May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 8, 2013. 
  37. ^ "Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names 2016-2021". Central Pacific Hurricane Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 12, 2016. Archived from the original (PHP) on December 30, 2016. 

External links

  • National Hurricane Center Website
  • National Hurricane Center's Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Servicio Meteorológico Nacional Website (in Spanish)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center
  • Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)'s website
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